This could bring a bit of a cheer to our members.
Recent surveys conducted by the U.S. Federal Reserve and the St. Louis Fed show “no clear evidence” that artificial intelligence (AI)adoption has led to widespread job losses. In fact, industries with higher AI uptake are reporting faster productivity growth on both sides of the Atlantic. Job postings data also indicate that firms embracing AI are not reducing hiring compared to others, suggesting that automation is not yet driving the slowdown in recruitment.
Philippines and India
According to a recent blog post by James Pethokoukis, senior Fellow DeWitt Wallace Chair Editor, AEIdeas Blog, Apollo Global Management had tracked unemployment trends in two economies heavily exposed to outsourced service work — call centers and back-office operations. Despite predictions that generative AI would devastate these sectors, neither Manila nor India had shown signs of labor-market deterioration. Analysts noted that if automation were truly eliminating jobs at scale, these markets would be the first to feel the shock.
Programmers Worldwide
There was one notable exception in programming jobs. Federal Reserve research showed employment growth among coders had slowed significantly since the launch of ChatGPT in 2022. While programmer employment continued to rise, the pace had decelerated, reflecting occupation-specific pressures rather than broader industry weakness.
Key Takeaway
Across the U.S., Europe, India, and the Philippines, AI’s labor market impact remains muted. While certain occupations —particularly programming — are experiencing slower growth, broader fears of mass displacement are not yet supported by data. Policymakers face the challenge of balancing vigilance with evidence-based action as AI adoption accelerates.
Here’s a clear breakdown of the impact of AI on jobs in each country or region mentioned in the article you’re viewing:
- United States
- Federal Reserve surveys show no evidence of widespread job losses due to AI.
- Industries adopting AI are seeing higher productivity growth, not reduced hiring.
- Programmer jobs are the exception: growth has slowed since ChatGPT’s release, though employment is still rising.
- Europe
- Similar to the U.S., European labor markets show no clear signs of AI-driven unemployment.
- Productivity gains are reported in sectors with higher AI adoption.
- Philippines
- Despite heavy exposure in call centers and outsourced services, no labor-market deterioration has been observed.
- Analysts note this sector would be among the first hit if AI displacement were significant.
- India
- Outsourced back-office and service jobs remain stable, with no evidence of mass layoffs linked to AI.
- Like the Philippines, India’s service-heavy economy is closely watched as a potential early indicator of disruption.
Source: https://www.aei.org/economics/ai-job-panic-still-outruns-the-evidence/